RON PAUL AND BARACK OBAMA WIN BIG IN IOWA!

Well, the results are in from the Iowa Caucus and as everyone is reporting; Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee both turned in a (sort of) surprise victory. I know, my banner says Ron Paul won big, but hang on a minute and I'll explain. It's not really that big a surprise, in my opinion, that Mike Huckabee won Iowa on the Republican side. Actually, it would have surprised me a lot more if someone like Giuliani had won. Iowa is a mostly white (95%) mostly Christian evangelistic (roughly 60%) state (it also has a very small Mormon population which you would assume hurt Mitt Romney), so you would expect that a Social Conservative Baptist Minister would fair well vs. sort-of-left-leaning Republicans. The two real surprises to me are that Ron Paul, the fiery House Representative from Texas finished ahead of Rudy Giuliani, the national poll leader, and that Barack Obama won a decisive victory in a very white state.

Let's examine Ron Paul's win first.

Ron Paul has been sneered at and even booed by his Republican counterparts, and yet, over the past 6 months, Dr. Paul has seen his support more than triple. He has had two very successful contribution drives on the Internet (called "Money Bombs") netting him $4.2 million and $6 million. In addition, national polls have his support now running at about 6% compared to the 2% to 1% just a few months ago (the most recent polls show him at about 4% but I believe it will be back at 6% or better after the repercussions of the Iowa results). Most of Ron Paul's support has been coming from Internet support groups, some formed completely on their own. That's great for Dr.Paul as it costs him nothing. Some supporters have even donated a blimp to help publicize Dr.Paul's message which cruises up and down the East Coast. It's these people that Ron Paul has managed to mobilize and turn out in Iowa. That in and of itself is a big win for Ron Paul since most people view the mostly young voters on the Internet as unreliable at best. I have to guess that finishing ahead of Giuliani is the icing on the cake for the Ron Paul camp. Sure, you can use the argument that Giuliani never even campaigned in Iowa, but no matter the reason, that win is going to further energize his effort, and that's another victory for Dr. Ron Paul.

My assessment;

Dr Paul has shown real resilience and a following that seems to be growing every day. Money and boots-on-the-ground is a major assest that shouldn't be underestimated. While I would put Ron Paul's chances of getting the Republican nomination as very slim (I believe they would rather blow the Convention up) his momentum and victories can't be ignored.

Now on to Barack's win.

I can not overstate how important this win is for Barack. To have any hope of defeating the Clinton Machine, Obama must have decisive wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire. I base this on the fact that the Super Tuesday (now called Super Duper Tuesday) states that are voting February 5 mostly lean toward Hillary and even includes her (sort of) home state of Arkansas. For Barack to turn any of those states around, he has to show Democrats that he has what it takes to put a Democrat in the White house. So far the prevailing wisdom has been that only Hillary can fight off the Republicans in the main election this fall. The Iowa win, if coupled with a New Hampshire win, could put some serious dents in the notion that Hillary is the only real choice. Even more important, and far less reported by the MSM (Main Stream Media), is that Barack won big in a state that only has a 2 1/2% black population. That means that a significant portion of white America is comfortable with the idea of having an African-American President (even over white candidates) if that man is Barack Obama. His appeal seems to spread across racial lines in a way that past African-American candidates could not. He even draws a significant portion of the female vote which is a death kneel for Hillary who hopes to draw most of her support from those same women.

My assessment;

Barack has been running a great campaign. He has demonstrated a knack for speaking in a way that resonates with a lot of people and with that as his strength, he actually has a decent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee and maybe even the first Black President of the United States of America. H.C.