The 1968 Democratic convention was a low point in Democrat history. Sharply divided over the War in Vietnam, the Democratic party had split into two passionate camps. Eugene McCarthy, a Democrat Senator from Minnesota, ran a decidedly anti-war campaign on the one side. He was calling for immediate withdrawal of all troops from the region. On the other side was Hubert Humphrey, Lyndon Johnson's vice president, who wanted a more measured withdraw. To throw even more gas on the flame, the Democrats then proceeded to nominate Hubert Humphrey, (who didn't even participate in the primary), because he had the majority of the delegate support. (Does any of this sound familiar?) The end result was riots, demonstrations, and eventually, a loss to Richard Nixon.It's easy to see why political junkies such as myself make the comparison between the 1968 Convention and the present problem confronting the Democratic party. The likelihood of a brokered, bitter convention is drawing closer and closer.
The strange thing is; It doesn't have to be this way. There is a path that could lead to victory, but there is only one path in my opinion.
That path is through Barack Obama. The problem for Senator Hillary Clinton is that she can't feasibly win the pledged delegate count (the count without the Super delegates). A nominee selected by the Super delegates is going to bring all sorts of unseemly politics to the surface. Who are the Super delegates? Why do they support Hillary? Is there Payola in the form of political promises for the supporters? The Democratic Party (or any party for that matter) can not afford to have it's back room dealings made public. Secondly, by comparing states similar to the remaining 10 states left to vote, it becomes clear that Hillary will not win the popular vote either. Oddly enough, the Clinton's will find themselves in the position of supporting a system that is very similar to the Electoral College (which they severally panned during the Florida Bush Vs. Gore fiasco). Both the Democrat Primary delegate system and the Electoral College are systems that are set up to be ultimately decided by representation, not by popular vote. (Self destruct sequence initiated).
Furthermore, I believe that there is a real problem with the candidate's bases. Barack's black support (which he carries over 90% of) is becoming increasingly irritated with Hillary's tactics and are building the kind of resentment that could easily lead to them sitting on their hands this November. The race is going to be too close for the Democrats to be losing any support from the base. On the other hand, I don't see that kind of resentment by Hillary supporters for Obama. I firmly believe that the mostly white woman who make up Hillary's base will certainly want to participate in such a historic election and will, of course, vote for Barack Obama over any Republican. Once again, there is only one choice.
I am an Independent. Normally, I wouldn't much care if the Democrat Party wanted to go into self destruct mode. But it feels like a lot is at stake here. We are close to ending the idea of turning our county into a Two Family Dynasty (which is off-the-charts important). We have a chance to make a great step toward racial conciliation (we should consider that in the equation.) The issues of debt, war, and the role of government are all on the table. I'm ready for a good debate between the principles and strategies of Republican John McCain and the vision of Democrat Barack Obama. It's time for the Hillary supporters to understand; There's only two ways this can go and only one of them leads to victory for the Democrats. The other leads only to chaos, lawsuits, and the affirmation of the Republican claim that the Dems, "Can't even run their own primary, how can they be trusted to run the country?" Pennsylvania, I'm begging you please, put an end to this for the sake of your party, and for the sake of the only candidate that can feasibly win. A loss for Ms. Clinton in your state would mean the end to the fight. A win for Hillary only drags it out. With visions of another 1968 Convention looming over your head, it is obvious which way you have to go. In fact, there's only one way out of this mess. Vote for Barack Obama and save your parties chances this November. H.C.
11 comments:
well, you know i have temporarily declared myself a democrat just so i can vote for ANYONE other than hillary. i am just praying we can defeat her soundly. i shudder to imagine the rancor if she wins our state.
Hey Lime,
I'm suprised that it isn't obvious to everyone that Hillary can't really win in a way that is acceptable to the other side. Assuming Hillary wins 70% of the remaining votes (popular), she still finds herself short of overtaking Barack in the pledged vote. It's almost as if the Dems WANT to have a disaster. Speaker Pelosi is right, DNC Chair Howard Dean is right,(it's very strange to find myself in their camp, but right is right.) The Super Delegates have to make an early choice that will force Hill out for the good of the party. The idea that a protracted battle is good for interest in the Dems is, in my opinion, ridiculous. All it's doing is giving McCain an easy (and by the way, free) way of destroying the opposition. For McCain (who only has a third of the money of either Barack or Hillary ) this is a God-send. Pennsylvania could end it all right here, you guys have the power. I keep thinking back to when we were discussing how Pennsylvania is always buried in the back of the process and is usually unimportant...my how times have changed. Pennsylvania, the world turns it's eyes to you.
the kerfuffle over obama's remarks is getting RIDICULOUS! it is making me sick. the stink hillary is raising just smells of desperation. and her ads....ack. the toddler hillary flouncing through the scene as she visits grandpa's cabin by some lake near scranton. the music swells as she waxes nostalgic about not having indoor plumbing at the vacation cabin, being able to shoot a gun, and how hard grandpa worked in the lace mills. how she is just one of us...blahblahblahfrickenblahdeblah. personally i find that a lot more insulting than obama's remarks because basically she is saying, you're all too uneducated to really care or think about issues that affect you just vote for me. i.dont.think.so.
well hell, if using an outhouse, being able to handle a gun and coming from factory working stock are all that one needs to qualify as the leader of the free world i am more qualified than hillary. i bet i've used an outhouse more often and more recently. my mother was a factory worker my entire childhood, and i damn well know i'm a better shot that hillary.
lawsie mercy, i hope my state doesn't let me down.....or let down the rest of the country. i want her gone.
LOL Lime,
Love that passion! If you ran, I would be voting for a woman this time around. These people (the Clintons lie so much it's ridiculous. Check out this vid where MSNBC calls Bill out on all the lies he told IN JUST ONE STATEMENT! http://youtube.com/watch?v=upHmJYhct5g
Thanks for your input as always!
LOL Lime,
Love that passion! If you ran, I would be voting for a woman this time around. These people (the Clintons lie so much it's ridiculous. Check out this vid where MSNBC calls Bill out on all the lies he told IN JUST ONE STATEMENT! http://youtube.com/watch?v=upHmJYhct5g
Thanks for your input as always!
lol, ya think that was an impassioned rant you should have been here when the i was watching the democratic debate last night. i was screaming at the tv, at the moderators, at the candidates.
45 minutes on nothing but guns n religion, bosnia remarks, flag pins, and other bullshit that tells me absolutely nothing about how they intend to run this country. what an absolute waste of time. when they finally did start asking questions that were at all significant they were still piss poor softball questions.
all week i have been flat on my back because of an injury so i have been watchign a bunch of tv. i will tell you this. they can say all they want about us poor, rural, backwards thinking pennsylvanians but if they want people who know how to ask incisive questions of the candidates about issues that matter people should be watching pcntv, which is the state cable channel (feed at pcntv.com). they have coverage of the various meetings candidates have held around the state. i am here to tell you the working class steelworkers who might not have more than a high school diploma are asking MUCH better, much deeper questions than stephanopoulos or gibson did.
other thoughts since i've seen an inordinate amoutn of tv this week. i live in an area that catches tv stations from NYC, philadelphia and scranton. it is interesting to note the difference in ads depending on which station and area they are coming from. scranton=guns n religion, philly=education and gun control. speaking out of two sides of our mouth are we?
finally when we consider which state officials are supporting which candidate. our fool governor who sold us to the casinos is in love with hillary (who leads in the polls among the least educated in our state). he's the former mayor of philly, the pennsylvanians from any area other than urban regions don't think much of him. however obama leads in the polls among the urbanites and the educated of our state. our junior senator, bob casey jr has decided to stand with obama. the cities don't much like casey but the appeals to the rest of the state mainly because he reminds them of his father who was a respected governor (perhaps you even recall how he wanted to address the DNC during which election...um....96 i think? to express his displeasure with the direction of the party in general. the powers that be shut him down). it's all pretty interesting.
is it tuesday yet? send her back to bosnia please. send her anywhere for the white house.
btw, that vid link was a riot. so true. vintage clintonian behavior. whaddya expect from people who split hairs over the definition of 'is.'
That "Debate" was eerily similar to watching "TMZ", "Entertainment Tonight", or the like. I wonder how much commercials were going for during that debacle? *Scratches Chin*
-n
Hey Lime,
Sorry to hear about your back. At least you'll be very well versed by the time the election rolls around. The debates were a complete fiasco for all the reasons you mentioned. I was stunned to see Snuffalupicus was one of the moderators. I mean, why not just bring in Bill himself if your going to use people who have a long history with the Clintons? There were several statements by Hillary that were completely ignored when they definately were contraversial, if not down right strange. (I'm covering them in the post I'm writing right after I'm done here.)I have faith that the good people of Pennsylvania will realize in the end that there is only one good outcome.
Hey Nic,
I wonder about the commercials too. It was only like,3 minutes into the damn thing and they were already taking a commercial break. I'm beginning to believe that the one-sideness of the debate is going to hurt Hillary more than Barack. She's now gotten herself into the position (because of all of the lies both her and her husband have been caught in.) of being seen as a decietful, lying shrew that will do anything to win. Personally, I think she's just pissed because a house fell on her sister. Her attempt to, (at the same time,) be on the attack while trying to appear likable is not working.
Sigh! So much for Pennsylvania being the end all for the Democratic race.
Thanks for nothing, Lime.
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