TEXAS SWING?

Texas hasn't voted for a Democrat President since Jimmy Carter was running. In fact, Texas has been a prize in the pockets of Republicans since 1980. With it's 34 electoral votes, Texas is second only to California with it's 55 electoral votes. The fact that Texas is a major player is strongly represented by the fact that Republicans have made sure to have a man from Texas on the ticket in all the elections since 1980, except one. The team of Dole /Kemp, which won Texas but lost the election to incumbent President Bill Clinton. Both G.W and his dad George H.W. Bush make their home in the Lone Star State as well as G.W's V.P Dick Cheney. Texas has served the Republicans well. But, with the right V.P. pick by the Dems, I believe that Texas could turn Democrat and end that streak, and here's why how and why I believe it could happen.

As it stands right now, Realclearpolitics.com polling has John McCain up by a sizable 59% to 36% lead. However, if you look at a mere month ago it was within 5%. Most all of the pundits don't think that Obama has much of a chance at scoring a Texas win, but they're not factoring in the movable Hispanic vote. Texas has the second largest Hispanic population after California. From July 2005 to July 2006 alone the Hispanic population has jumped 350,000 according to the U.S. Census. And it's Hispanic voter roles are growing by the minute. In fact, Hispanics now make up more than 36% of the total Texas population. So what does all this have to do with Barack Obama's chances of scoring Texas in the win column? Two words.

Bill Richardson.

As I've reported before, G.W. Bush and his brain, Karl Rove, targeted Hispanics to help put Bush both in the Texas governor's mansion and then in the White House. By most estimates, Georgie used his fluent Spanish, his Hispanic wife Laura, and his Texas Hispanic constituents to help him snare 41% of the U.S Hispanic vote in 2004. Easily a record for any Republican Presidential candidate. Despite those numbers, Hispanics call themselves Democrat over Republican by a 2 to 1 margin. I don't think anyone could make a good argument that Hispanic voters weren't a huge problem for the Dems in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections. And particularly in Texas.

Bill Richardson could change all that for Barack. The Governor of New Mexico (which has the largest percentage of Hispanics of any U.S. state.) is Hispanic and enormously popular with the kind of Latino vote that Barack needs to carry not only Richardson's home state but possibly even Texas.

Remember the Texas polling I sited earlier? Only a small fraction of those people on Obama's side are Hispanic. Barack has shown a real weakness with those voters. In fact Hillary was sweeping the vast majority of all the Hispanics in the Texas Primary. She won with Latino men by 58% to 40% and Latino women 66% to 33%. Now, you could argue that those Hispanics will be on Barack's side come November, but when I see a weakness like that I start to get worried. What if we could slim that 41% that G.W. took in 2004 down to say 30% or even 20%? Bill Richardson could do that for Barack. A 10% move by the Texas Hispanics could put Texas back in play for the Democrats.

Unfortunately, there is a possible fly in the ointment, Kay Baily Hutchinson. The female U.S. Senator from the state of Texas has been suggested as a possible V.P. for McCain and that could turn the tide in favor of the Republicans. She has repeatedly said she would not accept the position if offered, but we've heard that before.

California is an almost certain state for the Dems along with New York, if Barack could add Texas to the mix he would have 120 electoral votes out of the 270 needed. That would almost guarantee an easy win using the same system that beat the Dems in 2000. Sweet revenge. Bill Richardson as a V.P. would almost certainly mean a rise in Hispanic support for Barack and no place on the electoral map would scare Republicans more than a Texas swing state. H.C.