The words are being chosen carefully. Threats are being exchanged daily, veiled and otherwise. The drums of war have begun to beat between Iran and Israel. At issue is Iran's on going enrichment of nuclear material believed to be suitable for a nuclear weapon. Iran has repeatedly claimed that it's intentions are strictly for peaceful nuclear power. One thing is for certain, Israel will not stand idly by while Iran develops anything close to a nuclear weapon.THE HISTORY
Israel's history on this is clear; in 1981 for example, Israel blew up the Osirak nuclear power plant in Iraq because it's intelligence claimed Saddam Hussein was working on a nuclear weapon there. Then, as recently as last October, Israel again attacked one of it's neighbors over nuclear materials. Syria was purported to be receiving nuclear components from North Korea, in response, Israel blew up the military installation where it believed they were. Just the hint of nuclear weapons in the Middle East means a strike by Israel.
THE POLITICS
In Israel, it's important to remember that there is only one main political issue-security. Politicians in Israel are judged by how they manage to keep Israel relatively safe. Israelis do not feel safe with a nuclear armed Iran. Period. Should a nuclear weapon come anywhere near Israel, everyone from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on down would lose their jobs in disgrace. After the unsuccessful Lebanon incursion in 2006, for example, many politicians lost their jobs.
THE RHETORIC
Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency, said last weekend that an Israeli attack on Iran would turn the Middle East into "a ball of fire." One of Israeli Prime Minister Olmert's deputies, Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz recently said, "If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it." Finally, on July 5 2008, Gholam Hossein Elham, a spokesman for Iran said "Iran's stand regarding its peaceful nuclear program has not changed." Meaning, it will continue.
THE U.S. POSITION
The U.S. government has made a point of stressing that it's doesn't want a military strike by Israel. It points to it's already stressed military and uneasy operations in Iraq as reasons enough not to be involved. But to do the kind of job necessary to cripple Iraq's possible response (like blocking the Strait of Hormuz) while at the same time destroying their nuclear capacity, Israel needs, at the very least, U.S. air support and secured fly-over in Iraq. The U.S. knows it's involvement will be bad politics so it is already distancing itself in preparation for what might be inevitable.
There is still hope for Iran's leadership to recognize the threat and come to some terms, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Iran believes it is their right to create a nuclear power plant for peaceful purposes, and they are probably right by the world's own past practice. Several other countries could be pointed to that have built nuclear power plants that didn't have them 40 years ago. The problem is that Iran is one of the worst provocateurs toward Israel. I believe that if the U.N. and the world stand idly by while Iran continues to draw closer to having enriched nuclear material, Israel will believe it has no choice. It will attack. We will deny involvement as much as we can, but the further damage to our reputation in the Middle East will be easy to see. OPEC will respond in protest, Iraq will become even more tense, Iran will try to retaliate, Gas will go even higher.
G.W. sees all this as necessary to achieve his one hope of saving his legacy; a stable Iraq. With Iran crippled, the balance of power between Iran and Iraq is re-established. It's true that eventually things will calm down just as it did after the Yom Kippur War or the Six Day War. But once again the U.S. and Israel find themselves in the increasingly difficult job of keeping the Middle East nuclear weapon free. You have to ask yourself at some point, how long can it really be stopped? H.C.
11 comments:
"But once again the U.S. and Israel find themselves in the increasingly difficult job of keeping the Middle East nuclear weapon free."
You mean, except for Israel, right?
Which lends to the question of whether or not we'd even be having this discussion had the U.S. not given Israel nuclear capability...unofficially, of course. But that's all just speculation.
I'm doubtful that this will pan-out into military strikes. First of all, Iran isn't the pushover that Israel's immediate neighbors are. Secondly, there's absolutely noooooo way that Israel will receive any publicly revealed support from the U.S. Sure, we'll arm them, provide fuel & what not, but I don't see Congress, much less the American people, bending over & taking it in the ass while we're dealing w/ our collective mess over in Iraq & Afghanistan.
And speaking of Iraq & Afghanistan, isn't it odd how Iran is their neighbor? Odd. The oil mecca of the world. Wow. What a coincidence. ;)
-n
Hey Nic,
"You mean, except for Israel, right?"
I knew someone was going to ask that. Don't you remember? Israel doesn't have any nuclear weapons. Just ask them.
Actually, I probably should have said, "With the exception of Israel." For some reason I don't think of Israel as part of the Middle East (even though I know it is.) Good catch.
"I'm doubtful that this will pan-out into military strikes."
I wish I had your optimism on that one. I don't think I buy into that Iran is all that much different than Iraq was in terms of military might. Israel will lay them to waste with their air force, which is one of the most powerful in the world. I agree with you though that the U.S. will try to deny, deny, and deny any involvement. In fact I think they're already preparing their defense. (I.E. that it's not to our advantage, that it will strain Iraq, etc.) I don't believe Congress will be involved at all. The "Decider" will do it on his own.
"And speaking of Iraq & Afghanistan, isn't it odd how Iran is their neighbor? Odd. The oil mecca of the world. Wow. What a coincidence."
I think anyone that doesn't think oil plays a part in all of this is very naive. However, I would caution anyone that thinks it's ONLY about oil. It's also about Israel, terrorism, borders and personal vendettas.
Thanks for your thoughts.
It's a slippery slope. To be honest I see the point from both sides. And neither of the options make me feel safe. Either we side with Israel and go to war with Iran making us even more hated to the Arab nations and the world as a whole. Or we sit on our asses and let things pan out, risking a nuclear strike from those religious fanatic dickbags once they get their program up and running. It's a scary time we live in. I think America's time as the superpower of the world is numbered. To be honest just being a nation that looks out for it's own citizens and isn't responsible for policing the globe might be exactly what this country needs for our long term survival.
"I don't think I buy into that Iran is all that much different than Iraq was in terms of military might."
I dunno. If you're using the Iran/Iraq war as a basis, you have to consider that the U.S. was, @ that time, supplying Iraq w/ munitions & other support, and Iran was still on the offensive almost 90% of the entire conflict. Fast forward to modern times, & the Iraqi army that U.S. forces faced was a mere shell of it's former self, while the Iranians have only grown beefier.
"Israel will lay them to waste with their air force, which is one of the most powerful in the world."
Israel's air force is only as good as it's U.S. supply line. They depend, almost entirely, on U.S. deliveries to maintain their fleet. Take the recent Lebanon incursion for example. Immediately prior to the conflict, Israel purchased a fuck-ton of jet-fuel, missles, & other air force garb from the U.S. Now, I'm not sayin' that they can't get it from another source, but let's be real, if there's another nation in the same everybody-hates-me-boat that the U.S. currently seems to be in, it's Israel, albeit for entirely different reasons.
"I think anyone that doesn't think oil plays a part in all of this is very naive. However, I would caution anyone that thinks it's ONLY about oil. It's also about Israel, terrorism, borders and personal vendettas."
I agree, & disagree. The oil aspect is obvious, & anybody who cried foul over those protesters in '92 shouting "No blood for oil!", are probably feeling a bit foolish. The Israel aspect I get [two awkwardly similar religions (if I remember correctly, Islam was actually founded as a Judaism off-shoot, but Mohammed's original intention was shot-down) existing in a relatively confined space, each of which is mainly represented by a different "race"], but the terrorism example is nonsense. I don't need to tell you where & whom we should be fighting to combat that battle, as I'm nearly positive that you agree w/ me. But the mere word "terrorism" doesn't even carry the weight w/ me as it should, when mentioned by the U.S. government. It's become just yet another tool to scare people. Submit a simple Google query about the history of U.S. conflicts (a substantial percentage of which most Americans aren't aware of, I'm sure), & you'll find that the U.S. government has participated in terrorism on numerous occasions.
Lastly, as you've previously stated, doesn't Iran have the right to possess this technology? We have it, no? And you'd be hard-pressed nowadays to find somebody in the U.S. that doesn't think our foreign policy has a case of the suck. We gave the technology to Israel, who has CRAZY foreign policies & bombs/invades/bulldozes it's neighbors @ will. And Iran is the crazy one?
-n
Hey Nic,
Yes, I was refering to how Iran and Iraq were once considered military equals. While it's true that we were suppling Iraq, it's also true that Russia and China have been backing Iran. Bottom line-Israel's air force will destroy them and yes, we will help.
On your "Terrorism" point, I'm not going to debate you on e what is and isn't terrorism. If you want to believe that there is no difference between the goals and efforts of the U.S. and Israel or Iran, Go for it. But I seriously think your suffering from "I spend too much time finding the faults of America." To compare the U.S. to any Islamic country where they regularly violate women's rights, and human rights is off the charts. The main difference is; They do it openly and don't give a damn what anyone thinks about it and the U.S. government has to hide it's actions from it's people out of fear of prosecution.
nice how dubya can help create the problem and then want to step away from it. one of the reasons iran has progressed in its development is because we've distracted ourselves and diverted attention to the non-existent MWD in iraq.
Hi Lime,
Go to see you back, we've been missing you around here. I absolutely agree. The big benefactor of our follies in Iraq has been Iran.
Now we find ourselves in the position of having a REAL threat with REAL WMDs and our military, the world support, and our funds are all used up.
@Nic 2,
I want to add. There are examples of the U.S. participating in what I would term "terrorism". I don't want you to think that I'm blind to it. I'm going to do a bit tonight where I'll explain why I think there is a difference and try to explain what I think is terrorism and what's not and why. I also don't want you to think I believe you ONLY look for the faults in America, it's just that our past mistakes aren't a proper (in my eyes) justification for other people's actions. I.E. I have done hard drugs in my past but that doesn't mean I can't tell other people to stay away from them. Wrong is wrong no matter who does it. I just instantly went into my "defend America" mode because I have to listen to sooooo much U.S. bashing here in the People's Republic of Ann Arbor where everyone else is holy no matter how evil their intent and the U.S. is always wrong by default.
Oh I see how it is. Everybody gets love except for me.
Nah, the gist on terrorism was that the current administration has already tried to sell this BS to the American public (& sold it they did!). While it may very well work again, terrorism isn't one of the reasons why the U.S. will be involved.
-n
Sorry Tabor,
Much Love.
You made a great point when you said, " I think America's time as the Superpower of the World is numbered." You couldn't be more correct. I believe that a whole lot of people are stuck in the 1970's mentality that the U.S. is the cause and solution to all the world's problems. I.E. The belief that we can somehow put out trade sanctions and protect our jobs. All that will do is cause foreign investment to leave. The U.S. isn't even the world's #1 market anymore. It's the E.U.. I'm afraid our influence IS shrinking.
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